Welcome. The content below is free to the public. It might be worth what you are paying for it. Having studied economics and being in finance for over two decades, I have learned that only one thing is certain - that almost nothing is certain. As we endeavor to come up with our best analysis of the world around us, the opportunities and risks, we have to try to overcome a myriad of issues including our own ignorance, biases and emotions. What follows are my attempts to overcome those obstacles. Welcome to my view - publishing Monday and Friday afternoons.
The rally in oil stocks since the OPEC agreement to cut 1.8mbd of oil production for the next six months has been tremendous. As usual, investors only seem to be getting the stock picks less than half right.
The stocks that investors should be buying are the low cost shale producers. Companies focusing on the Permian Basin, Eagle Ford, the STACK and SCOOP in Oklahoma, and the center of the Bakken have huge advantages to other producers, especially the oil majors who OPEC will continue to keep a thumb on.
Last week I asked if a Trump, China conflict could lead the U.S. into recession? The point of the question was how important the Trump and China relationship was to the U.S. economy. In one short week, Trump has antagonized China on two more fronts. Seemingly, he is deliberately trying to instigate with China. That is a very high risk move with little upside for America.
I have put together a free report titled "2017: The Return of Volatility" and will be discussing it in an online presentation on Saturday morning, December 17th at 9am Central.
Set aside an hour to learn how to prepare for what will be the most significant economic and geopolitical "change" year in possibly decades. Understand the interconnections of the global economy and power structures that will be vital to growing and protecting your and your family's financial freedom.
Our "Very Short List" is composed of 40 to 50 extensively researched companies that are poised to double, triple or more in price the next few years. The Very Short List list includes the more conservative Fundamental Leaders group of strongly profitable companies trading at value prices often paying a dividend and the Emerging Leaders which have catalysts that could lead to explosive growth.
By following the deliberate Fundamental Trends investing and trading approach, investors can build positions in winning companies and ETFs to take part in what Warren Buffett considers the core of his success: "compound interest."
We have a select list of Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) that we use for our portfolios. I have screened these funds for their internal fundamentals and holdings, as well as, long-term performance metrics. These are the funds that have done the best over time and are positioned to continue doing well in a changing world. These are great tools for building a tactically diversified portfolio or as bolt on holdings for a stock portfolio.
2017 is shaping up to be a reset year in the economy and markets. Already we have seen a trillion dollars shaved from the bond market. I anticipate we will see more losses soon, including in the stock, real estate and commodities markets. We will also see what I have called a "skip-straight recession."
The "slow growth forever" global economy is real. I've covered the evidence over the past few years and summarized in part one of this quarterly letter. Here's how I am investing in the "new normal" economic world.
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