A sampling of some of the analysis I've made that has come to pass is or happening now...
Welcome. The content below is free to the public. It might be worth what you are paying for it. Having studied economics and being in finance for over two decades, I have learned that only one thing is certain - that almost nothing is certain. As we endeavor to come up with our best analysis of the world around us, the opportunities and risks, we have to try to overcome a myriad of issues including our own ignorance, biases and emotions. What follows are my attempts to overcome those obstacles. Welcome to my view - publishing Monday and Friday afternoons.
So, I've talked about being on vacation right now. For me that means some light work from nice places while waiting to do the next thing. Right now I'm at Anthony's Pier on Weir's Beach on Lake Winnipesaukee. I recommend it highly. Laid back, cold drinks and good food.
The resilience of shale oil has made it difficult for oil prices to recover, despite what is essentially a production freeze by OPEC and Russia. This is not sitting well with them, as what began as a mere flesh wound is starting to gush financial blood and the only suave has been to take on more debt.
OPEC's decision in late 2014 to ramp up oil production in an effort to kill competition was wildly successful across the board to start. Oil prices plunged, which led to dozens of oil companies having to file for bankruptcy and most of the rest having to dilute and extend debt. Americans naturally felt that U.S. oil shale producers were OPEC's target, but that was a self-centered viewpoint.
Our "Very Short List" is composed of 50 to 60 extensively researched companies that are poised to double, triple or more in price the next few years. The Very Short List list includes the more conservative Fundamental Leaders group of strongly profitable companies trading at value prices often paying a dividend and the Emerging Leaders which have catalysts that could lead to explosive growth. Before you look at the companies on the list, read this section, every time you come to this page.
I would have titled this article "Did President Donald Trump Just Say What I Thought I Heard Him Say," but that's too long of a title. Suffice to say, I almost fell out of my computer command chair when I saw this:
If President Trump is seriously starting to change his tune on solar, maybe he's listening to Ivanka or Elon more, then that could be the shot in the arm the whole solar industry has needed all year. Maybe he's just mad that China has taken the lead in solar development. Seriously, solar has taken it on the chin since the election and if President Trump is really becoming pro-solar, then we could see many solar stocks move back to their 2-year highs pretty quickly.
Over the past two years, there has been essentially no "risk premium" in oil prices due to a supply glut and large inventories. That could change if tensions in the Middle East turn into wider conflict. With oil supply and demand in balance, even small disruptions to supply or transportation could disrupt inventory enough to drive oil prices higher.
Janet Yellen didn't convince a lot of people this week with her argument that inflation could rise and she must remain vigilant. People haven't seen inflation in the numbers - you now, other than in stocks, health care and housing, but since when have those counted - so, their recency bias tells them there's no inflation and it's not coming. They're wrong and Yellen knows it, but she can't really say why. Why can't she? Maybe she knows something. BAUM!BAUM!BAUM! Shhh, I think she knows that we're about to see oil jump much higher even if the trader's narrative doesn't agree.
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