Learn how to invest for higher returns with lower risk from top ranked...
Take Control of Your Future & Financial Freedom.
Use My Step-by-Step Approach for a Fraction of the Cost of High Priced Advisors.
Fundamental Trends Investment & Retirement Letter
Find me in the media...
From my keyboard...
A sampling of some of the analysis I've made that has come to pass is or happening now...
Free research...
Member Investing Section
From My View...
Welcome. The content below is free to the public. It might be worth what you are paying for it. Having studied economics and being in finance for over two decades, I have learned that only one thing is certain - that almost nothing is certain. As we endeavor to come up with our best analysis of the world around us, the opportunities and risks, we have to try to overcome a myriad of issues including our own ignorance, biases and emotions. What follows are my attempts to overcome those obstacles. Welcome to my view - publishing Monday and Friday afternoons.
Quick Thoughts On Stocks In The Buy Ranges
- Details
- Category: Stocks
Several of our VSL stocks have fallen to the lower-end or even below their assigned "buy ranges." I've discussed this long ago, but buy ranges are not absolute areas to be a buyer. Those are areas to do a last deep dive into the research in order to make a decision. Due diligence is an ongoing process.
Right now, for all the reasons I've discussed over and over, the stock market is overvalued. While we are on ice now, there is no telling how long that ice stays firm. From government to rising interest rates to trade wars to potential real wars, all on top of stretched valuations and what appears to be peak earnings, there is a lot of reason for caution.
I know that the feeling of "missing out" can be powerful. I get it all the time when I don't play a hand at the poker table or don't introduce myself to a nice woman. But the reality is that most success is found in saying "no."
To read more, a subscription is needed: Click here to subscribe Quick Thoughts On Stocks In The Buy Ranges
Quick Thoughts On Oil, Bitcoin And Gold
- Details
- Category: View
I have about had it with the chasers, know-it-alls and greater fools right now. I'm telling you, the investor attitudes, lack of education and inexperience are very similar to 2007 and 1999 right now. The Millennials are in big trouble soon. They are about to get their first big fleecing. They should listen to me, I'm on their side, but boy, oh, boy, are the an interesting group.
I don't know if it's arrogance, ignorance, self-loathing, entitlement or some weird combination that makes Millennials think they are somehow smarter than those who came before them, but that is the vibe they throw off. They certainly don't like to stand on the shoulders of giants. That's how I got a boost and I think they should take the lesson.
In any case, I have three articles in the keyboard right now that will be out this weekend and early next week as a response to things I'm seeing and hearing, they are:
Oil Bears Are As Wrong As When They Were Bulls
Cryptocurrencies, The Definition Of Money And Tulip Bulbs
Gold Is Just A Rock, But Gold Miners Might Rock
Here's the skinny.
Trimming VXX Calls, Playing With House Money
- Details
- Category: Options
Summary
I am selling the February VXX $27 calls for $2.75.
This represents a 36% gain in a little over a week.
It's a good trade, but let's not get greedy, these options move a lot and have a structural disadvantage.
I'm essentially playing with house money on the February VXX $32 calls after buying back in puts last week and selling the $27 calls as noted
To read more, a subscription is needed: Click here to subscribe Trimming VXX Calls, Playing With House Money
Baby Googles?
- Details
- Category: View
George Soros made some points about Gogglebet (GOOG) and Facebook (FB) at Davos this week. Here is a link to a summary article:
George Soros says Facebook and Google's 'days are numbered'
His main point is that the companies are running out of new users to sustain growth and that could be a harbinger for different types of danger for them and behavior by them.
Risk Managing Volatility Trades
- Details
- Category: Options
The nature of swing trades is that sometimes things swing against you. That is the case in the government shutdown not staying shut down. Our volatility speculation became a lot more speculative this morning when the Senate voted 81-18 to pass a continuing resolution to end the government shutdown for until February 8th.
To read more, a subscription is needed: Click here to subscribe Risk Managing Volatility Trades
Time To Start Expanding Volatility Trade
- Details
- Category: Options
I have been watching the drama in Washington D.C. over the budget. I have no real idea whether they cut a deal or not tonight, but it seems the Republicans don't have the Senate nailed down. If they don't get all but one of the Republican Senators, right now they're missing at least 3, then there will be a Government shutdown come Monday if there is no deal by then.
The only way to get Democrats on board for a budget deal is to include a deal on DACA, which seems remote, although it would be a no-brainer to do. Then again, who ever accused politicians of having brains.
So, here's where I am at. I am going to buy a few calls on the iPath S&P 500 VIX ST Futures ETN (VXX) to start a long position on volatility. Remember, this is a high risk move. We can't own VXX for longer than a month or so on options and the actual vehicle is basically a day trading security. So, this is very speculative. However, when it works, it works big usually.
To read more, a subscription is needed: Click here to subscribe Time To Start Expanding Volatility Trade
Quick Thoughts on Exact Sciences Sell-off Today
- Details
- Category: Stocks
Exact Sciences (EXAS), you all should have taken profits on Exact around $60 when I told you to reduce to a normal weight position, is under big pressure today from this study:
Liquid Biopsy Shows Promise for Colon Cancer
Seeking Alpha put out a note as well:
Exact Sciences under pressure on potential CRC blood screening test; shares down 9%
Richard Marzouka, one of the few dozen people I follow on SA (see my profile to find good people to follow), and I just found out a subscriber, gave me a heads up this morning. Here's my reply in note I sent back to him:
To read more, a subscription is needed: Click here to subscribe Quick Thoughts on Exact Sciences Sell-off Today
Fundamental Trends Investment Letter is NOT a Registered Investment Advisor and does NOT provide personalized advice.
This is a research and information website.
Investors must make their own financial planning and investment decisions based upon your own individual circumstances, goals and risk tolerance.
Please see the Terms of Services for further information.