Kirk Spano's Fundamental Trends
"The Only Thing That Is Constant Is Change." Manage Risk and Seize Opportunity in an Era of Change.
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From my keyboard...

A sampling of some of the analysis I've made that has come to pass is or happening now...

"The volatility we saw in 2007 is not likely to subside in the short run... I believe that the problems at Bear Stearns are the tip of the iceberg regarding problems that are likely to emerge in the financial sector."
January 2008 Letter to Clients
"2012 marks the year that the United States accelerates its transformation from a military super power... to a natural resources super power which is able to support peace without as much use of its armed forces."
MarketWatch December 2011
"I believe there is a high probability that we do move to the low end of the oil-price range later this year...That's not to say there can't be out of the ordinary price plunges..."
MarketWatch June 2014
"Oil just entered a new bull market phase by rising 20% in price since I started imploring people to buy oil stocks a few months ago... make no mistake about it, oil is going to rise dramatically in the next few years... until electric vehicles take hold."
Seeking Alpha October 2017
"...investors have two opportunities for asymmetric gains emerging. The first is to position trade... oil investments made now. The second opportunity is to find companies that will thrive in an EV, solar and smart grid future..."
Seeking Alpha December 2017

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Member Forum

From My View...

Welcome. The content below is free to the public. It might be worth what you are paying for it. Having studied economics and being in finance for over two decades, I have learned that only one thing is certain - that almost nothing is certain. As we endeavor to come up with our best analysis of the world around us, the opportunities and risks, we have to try to overcome a myriad of issues including our own ignorance, biases and emotions. What follows are my attempts to overcome those obstacles. Welcome to my view - publishing Monday and Friday afternoons.

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As most of you know, I was on vacation the past two weeks. During that time I traveled over 3200 miles by car from Wisconsin, through Illinois, Kentucky, Indiana, Ohio, Pennsylvania, New York (where the speed limit is 65), Vermont, New Hampshire and Connecticut. I traveled by U.S. Highways as much as possible to get a better lay of the land. I'll include an article on this trip in the next few days with some compelling photos and hopefully thoughtful observations and insights. 

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So, I've talked about being on vacation right now. For me that means some light work from nice places while waiting to do the next thing. Right now I'm at Anthony's Pier on Weir's Beach on Lake Winnipesaukee. I recommend it highly. Laid back, cold drinks and good food.

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The resilience of shale oil has made it difficult for oil prices to recover, despite what is essentially a production freeze by OPEC and Russia. This is not sitting well with them, as what began as a mere flesh wound is starting to gush financial blood and the only suave has been to take on more debt.

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OPEC's decision in late 2014 to ramp up oil production in an effort to kill competition was wildly successful across the board to start. Oil prices plunged, which led to dozens of oil companies having to file for bankruptcy and most of the rest having to dilute and extend debt. Americans naturally felt that U.S. oil shale producers were OPEC's target, but that was a self-centered viewpoint.

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Our "Very Short List" is composed of 50 to 60 extensively researched companies that are poised to double, triple or more in price the next few years. The Very Short List list includes the more conservative Fundamental Leaders group of strongly profitable companies trading at value prices often paying a dividend and the Emerging Leaders which have catalysts that could lead to explosive growth. Before you look at the companies on the list, read this section, every time you come to this page.

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To read more, a subscription is needed: Click here to subscribe Very Short List: Q3 2017

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I would have titled this article "Did President Donald Trump Just Say What I Thought I Heard Him Say," but that's too long of a title. Suffice to say, I almost fell out of my computer command chair when I saw this:

If President Trump is seriously starting to change his tune on solar, maybe he's listening to Ivanka or Elon more, then that could be the shot in the arm the whole solar industry has needed all year. Maybe he's just mad that China has taken the lead in solar development. Seriously, solar has taken it on the chin since the election and if President Trump is really becoming pro-solar, then we could see many solar stocks move back to their 2-year highs pretty quickly.

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Over the past two years, there has been essentially no "risk premium" in oil prices due to a supply glut and large inventories. That could change if tensions in the Middle East turn into wider conflict. With oil supply and demand in balance, even small disruptions to supply or transportation could disrupt inventory enough to drive oil prices higher.

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  1. That Cagey Janet Yellen
  2. Sell in June to Avoid Summer Swoon?
  3. Bubble in Bubble Calling Still Bubbly
  4. ETF File: Funds to Buy for Rising Oil & Gas Prices
  5. Remember to Remember in Life and Investing
  6. Asset Allocation and My "Core 4" Approach for Better Investing
  7. Citron is Very Wrong About Exact Sciences
  8. Very Short List - April Stock Buy Limit Ranges
  9. Oil's Missing Risk Premium is About to Come Back
  10. Investing During the Trump Presidency
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Understanding and investing in the "Slow Growth Forever" global economy and other mega-trends.

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