A sampling of some of the analysis I've made that has come to pass is or happening now...
Welcome. The content below is free to the public. It might be worth what you are paying for it. Having studied economics and being in finance for over two decades, I have learned that only one thing is certain - that almost nothing is certain. As we endeavor to come up with our best analysis of the world around us, the opportunities and risks, we have to try to overcome a myriad of issues including our own ignorance, biases and emotions. What follows are my attempts to overcome those obstacles. Welcome to my view - publishing Monday and Friday afternoons.
I have put together a free report titled "2017: The Return of Volatility" and will be discussing it in an online presentation on Saturday morning, December 17th at 9am Central.
Set aside an hour to learn how to prepare for what will be the most significant economic and geopolitical "change" year in possibly decades. Understand the interconnections of the global economy and power structures will be vital to growing and protecting your and your family's financial freedom.
2017 is shaping up to be a reset year in the economy and markets. Already we have seen a trillion dollars shaved from the bond market. I anticipate we will see more losses soon, including in the stock, real estate and commodities markets. We will also see what I have called a "skip-straight recession."
The "slow growth forever" global economy is real. I've covered the evidence over the past few years and summarized in part one of this quarterly letter. Here's how I am investing in the "new normal" economic world.
For the past few years, I have been writing about how the global economy is poised for a very long period of slower growth. Early this year on MarketWatch, I dubbed what was going on as "slow growth forever." While I know that people want to believe that the global and U.S. economies can grow faster, the reality is that slower growth is structural in nature.
In recent months, details of Donald Trump's economic proposals have trickled down. Interestingly, Trump's ideas sound an awful lot like George W. Bush's. In fact, Trump as converted several conservative pundits into advisors. That's not necessarily what would cause a massive recession though.
What we have also learned from interview after interview, is that America's corporate and financial leaders are very wary of a Donald Trump Presidency. Nations around the world, especially China and Mexico, two huge trading partners, are also worried. That worry could translate to a massive economic downturn.
Yesterday's news that OPEC sort of, kind of, had an agreement to limit oil production should be seen as a sign that there is a pretty firm floor on oil, but not an outright bullish sign.
Last year I suggested that OPEC would signal production limits at about 32 million barrels per day. I was a little low, they're talking 33mbd. Close but no cigar, although the concept is right. Here's what I see for energy investors.
The Federal Reserve is lying to us about what their goals are. Their motivations are not what we are told. The "dual mandate" of maximizing employment and maintaining stable prices are only secondary goals of the Fed.
The third objective established by Congress for the Fed is to moderate long-term interest rates. With over a $100 trillion of debt and deferred liabilities, the U.S. Government needs interest rates low long-term. But there is a secret mandate that is even more important.
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