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A sampling of some of the analysis I've made that has come to pass is or happening now...
Welcome. The content below is free to the public. It might be worth what you are paying for it. Having studied economics and being in finance for over two decades, I have learned that only one thing is certain - that almost nothing is certain. As we endeavor to come up with our best analysis of the world around us, the opportunities and risks, we have to try to overcome a myriad of issues including our own ignorance, biases and emotions. What follows are my attempts to overcome those obstacles. Welcome to my view - publishing Monday and Friday afternoons.
Janet Yellen didn't convince a lot of people this week with her argument that inflation could rise and she must remain vigilant. People haven't seen inflation in the numbers - you now, other than in stocks, health care and housing, but since when have those counted - so, their recency bias tells them there's no inflation and it's not coming. They're wrong and Yellen knows it, but she can't really say why. Why can't she? Maybe she knows something. BAUM!BAUM!BAUM! Shhh, I think she knows that we're about to see oil jump much higher even if the trader's narrative doesn't agree.
For the past couple years, the stock market has seemed to defy gravity. And, since President Trump was elected, it has outright defied logic too. There really is no political or policy reason that stocks should have rallied so much since November. However, the stock market doesn't care and rally it has.
Back in 2012 on MarketWatch I said I thought the next bubble would be in talking about bubbles. I've been proven to be pretty right. I still find all sorts of bubble talk online, in the press and even among some publicity seeking analysts and money managers. They've been wrong for about 8 years now and they might be wrong a lot longer.
This Memorial Day weekend let's make sure we take time to remember all of the important things in life. First, let's make sure to remember all those who lost their lives defending this great nation. Without the brave members of our armed forces, their committment, their resolute patriotism and their willingness to sacrifice, America and the world would be far worse off. The U.S. military is clearly one of the great guarantors of freedom. America's military, flawed as all things human are, has indisputably been a catalyst to over a billion people beginning to live in democracies and get out of poverty in recent decades. We should never forget the good that facing evil has brought to our volatile, but improving world.
The media and financial industry talk about "asset allocation" all the time. They focus on defining it in a way that gives it precious little meaning. What's worse, is they offer virtually no guidance in how to build or maintain your asset allocation.
Exact Sciences (EXAS) is under attack again by shorts. The arguments this time are similar to the arguments made in the past and just as likely to be wrong. That doesn’t mean, however, that investors and Exact Sciences itself can’t learn something from the rehashed criticisms.
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