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A sampling of some of the analysis I've made that has come to pass is or happening now...
Welcome. The content below is free to the public. It might be worth what you are paying for it. Having studied economics and being in finance for over two decades, I have learned that only one thing is certain - that almost nothing is certain. As we endeavor to come up with our best analysis of the world around us, the opportunities and risks, we have to try to overcome a myriad of issues including our own ignorance, biases and emotions. What follows are my attempts to overcome those obstacles. Welcome to my view - publishing Monday and Friday afternoons.
The nature of swing trades is that sometimes things swing against you. That is the case in the government shutdown not staying shut down. Our volatility speculation became a lot more speculative this morning when the Senate voted 81-18 to pass a continuing resolution to end the government shutdown for until February 8th.
I have been watching the drama in Washington D.C. over the budget. I have no real idea whether they cut a deal or not tonight, but it seems the Republicans don't have the Senate nailed down. If they don't get all but one of the Republican Senators, right now they're missing at least 3, then there will be a Government shutdown come Monday if there is no deal by then.
The only way to get Democrats on board for a budget deal is to include a deal on DACA, which seems remote, although it would be a no-brainer to do. Then again, who ever accused politicians of having brains.
So, here's where I am at. I am going to buy a few calls on the iPath S&P 500 VIX ST Futures ETN (VXX) to start a long position on volatility. Remember, this is a high risk move. We can't own VXX for longer than a month or so on options and the actual vehicle is basically a day trading security. So, this is very speculative. However, when it works, it works big usually.
Exact Sciences (EXAS), you all should have taken profits on Exact around $60 when I told you to reduce to a normal weight position, is under big pressure today from this study:
Seeking Alpha put out a note as well:
Richard Marzouka, one of the few dozen people I follow on SA (see my profile to find good people to follow), and I just found out a subscriber, gave me a heads up this morning. Here's my reply in note I sent back to him:
Eliminating some large cap stocks.
Adding some small and midcap stocks.
Focusing on revenue growth rates and value characteristics.
Happy New Year!!! Yep, I know I'm late, but boy oh boy does the world seem interesting! Let's start...
Remember when I wrote this?
A lot of people called me a stupid, ignorant, war mongering joke of an analyst. Pretty much every way I could be wrong, I was wrong. Well...
If you have been reading my little letters on holidays then you know I like to put a positive spin on things, even of a serious nature. Today is no different.
First off, let me wish you all a very Merry Christmas and whatever Happy Holiday that you might otherwise celebrate. Frankly, I have come to respect the Festivus made up holiday for its airing of grievances. With that in mind, let me air some.
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